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An aging population, transportation constraints and how money moves into New York: Geopolitical trends effect on agriculture at Global AgInvesting (4.21.2015)

NEW YORK (April 21, 2015) – What significance do the price of condos in New York City and San Francisco have on the state of investing in the agricultural sector? How will changing demographics shape this market? And why might the current focus on increasing animal protein demand to feed the growing population switch to increased soy and wheat consumption?

Answers to these questions and more will be discussed in detail by geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan who will speak at the 7th annual Global AgInvesting (GAI) conference in New York, April 27-30 at the Waldorf Astoria. Zeihan, who was previously with Stratfor, a highly-regarded American publisher and global intelligence company, will address how geopolitical trends of today and yesterday are expected to impact geographic regions, politics and economic markets around the world.

In a recent interview with GAI News, Zeihan, the author of “The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder,” introduced some unique outlooks on the future of ag based on geopolitical influences. Key highlights of this thought-provoking interview, which will be expanded upon during his talk in New York, include:

• The world population is in the midst of a massive demographic inversion. That is, that in many countries, except for the U.S., the number of 50-somethings outnumber those in their 40s, 30s, 20s and 10s. When these 50-somethings all reach their 60s within the next 10 years, we’re going from a global capital surplus to a global capital shortage. “And we’re really not ready for that,” said Zeihan. “When you reduce finance because of the demographic situation you reduce the ability of global agriculture to adapt, … so any country that had been capital intensive in their agriculture is going to be looking at catastrophic problems in the not-too-distant future.” Countries, he said, that are at the top of the list of concern are Ukraine, Russia, Brazil.

• According to Zeihan, an aging population will lead to reduced incomes and alter the quality of food demanded. When an expected increase in transportation and supply constraints is combined with reduced incomes, Zeihan predicts that there will be a switch from capital-intensive animal protein food sources to wheat and soy sources. The expectation is that this shift won’t happen for three to five years, but he said “then, it’s all going to change very, very quickly, over the course of a year or two.”

Zeihan will provide more comprehensive details on how geopolitical trends are shaping the global financial system and agricultural sector at next week’s Global AgInvesting conference in New York.
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Global AgInvesting, a brand of HighQuest Group, is the world’s most well attended agriculture investment conference series and leading resource for events, research and insight into the global agricultural sector. GAI has hosted more than 6,500 attendees since 2009, and currently produces five annual events in New York, San Francisco, Singapore, London, and Dubai, and publishes the industry’s most critical periodical, the Global AgInvesting Quarterly newsletter. www.globalaginvesting.com
 

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